Showing posts with label Weekly Range. Show all posts
Showing posts with label Weekly Range. Show all posts

Friday, March 20, 2009

38W - 5L = 43T = 88.4%


Base System: 38W - 5L = 43T = 88.4%
Sub System: 18W - 3L = 21T = 85.7%

Trading:
Net: + $1200.00
Net: + 24 points
Accuracy: 85.71%

End of week ES average daily range: 28.65 points

Today was a solid mix of styles with at one point a string of 15 winners in a row. Talk about pushing the outside of the envelope! The system had plenty of signals and I took plenty of those. I also did some work off of my dynamic S&R levels and stationary S&R levels. I mainly caught parts of the morning sessions between phone calls and meetings. I traded fairly well between distractions and tried to let profits run more than usual, but still kept a trailing stop ultra tight.

The new signal is one that takes some nerve to take. It completely stops the market after a swift move. I feel it is detecting capitulation. The moment when traders give up due to the pain of the loss being too great. I step in a buy or sell at the high or low.
I am starting to understand what the system is doing. The market is nothing more than support and resistance (S&R) which is nothing more than fear and greed with is nothing more than human nature.
Somehow, the indicator is able to catch this battle and show me when the sides are switching places. So the signals I have been trading from are really just showing me support and resistance areas even if I do not happen to have them plotted visually. Because so many traders use different methods to determine important S&R, it leaves places in the the market where I get signals at seemingly random intervals.

I also zoomed out today for a wider perspective and can see that I might have the ability to capitalize from larger moves someday, perhaps trades lasting an hour or more. All in good time. For now the goal is to learn to grind out a steady income.

Chart of the day has a breakdown signal. It was a perfect formation one that can be taken with relative calm.

Saturday, March 14, 2009

Friday the 13th 45W 10L 55T=81.8%


Average ES Daily Range for Week: 30.65

Today I spent some time just watching. I saw quite a few winning trades go by and the system was working well. Late in the day I got Ninjatrader running and took a few trades. In my rush to do so I forgot that I was charting Junes contract and had the March contract in the DOM. The trades still worked out and I then corrected the issue.

Results: 8.25 net profit of $437.50 I was 92.31% correct on my trades. I cannot complain there.
I took more time in selecting the signals and was using the markets internals ideas at times. I need quite a bit more time with my internals ideas however. As usual they are harder to trade in the live market than reading a chart at the end of the day.

Something very interesting was happening. I was seeing price not moving when it should have moved according to the internals. Shortly thereafter a large move would occur. I will be analyzing this pattern and making sure I have a reason to have a bias in the direction of the move. If this continues to work, this in itself could become a very high percentage trade setup.

Social commentary alert:
The news, as always is over saturating the story of the markets rally and looking for reasons why. Once the markets have run all the scared money out they reverse it, simple. When the pain is too great to stand, they are waiting there to buy it low and sell it high. We are sheep, we move with the herd. Most look for the easy trending moves, while the pros are buying the falling knife with an open hand and taking the risks and reaping the rewards.

Trade of the Day:
I have one signal that often signals a reversal. At times it reverses the whole market as seen here.