Friday, March 6, 2009

Friday 54W 12L 66T = 81.8% Reality Check.


Ok, I finally had 30 minutes in front of my own pc, so I was very excited. The problem was it was during a huge trend up on a Friday at 2:30pm. I started out well. I was trading aggressive and was up $1500 quickly. Then the uptrend began and I kept adding and shorting against it. I once watched a trader lose 30 straight days of profitable trading in one day doing this same thing. You would have thought I would have learned. Well, I learned a little because I closed the trade and took the loss of -$2500 and some change.

He on the other hand held the position overnight. The #1 thing not to do. His position went against him more overnight and who knows just how much he lost.

So today was a nice dose of reality about ignoring signals and predicting the future. Better to have that happen simulated than live. Also I had issues yesterday with the software while connected remotely. This proved I was right in not trading live that way.

I will say this, the system did signal nearly every single long with the trend and only had 1 losing trade signal against the trend. Again, I the trader blew it, not the system.

I will spend some time crunching the numbers in trying to keep stops tight and possibly have more break even or small losers than full stop losers. This might be a safer way to trade.

The new signal: 20W 3L 23T = 86.9%
On a positive note, the new signal did well again today. This will be fun to watch over the next 10 days or so before I get confident.

Trades of the day were a hair raising long following by a risky short.

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