Wednesday, March 18, 2009

Initial Optimization thoughts

Looking back over 10 trades from today, as I thought, the results are cause for slight euphoria.

Delusions of grandeur aside, let's run some numbers and talk facts.

3 trades could have been closed at +.25 since they went against me. Moving my stop to +.25 once it moves +1 in my favor seems to be a valid method. These may have become stop outs. I need to see this in live action to be sure. Trust me, even with this volatility my system can handle tight stops.

The additional points available on the remaining trades were easily around 20 points. A minimum of 13 points extra vs. going for 1 point. Add in the savings in fees of getting 13 more trades to get those 13 points and that's like a free point in itself bring up to 14 points.

In looking at this I remembered that I saw this mechanical exit method long ago. I had put the idea aside to concentrate on trading the system live and getting consistent. I had planned on learning to let the trades close mechanically eventually once I was making money. This was a nice way to benefit from the time invested in reading a book. Sometimes years of study and thinking come together in a matter of months.

I was interested in the 1 point scalping potential because back in 2005 the ES had a tiny daily range. I want a system that can deliver consistently if the markets go back to that mode. I firmly believe that traders looking for these consistent large moves will be crippled and whipsawed if the environment changes. I also believe the base system will continue to grind out profits in a lackluster market.

No comments:

Post a Comment