Quest for the Holy Grail: Longer Time Frame Signals

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Longer Time Frame Signals

Last week I checked a longer time frame signal and found it performed 100% that day. I just checked today and over the whole day and into post market it is 18/18 = 100% again!
Yesterday its was 21/24 Winners. 21 Winners - 3 Losers - 24 signals. 87.5%

I am forced to use one small screen at work while remotely trading. At the very least I should be watching this longer time frame for trades. 100% again. Unreal. I have been forcing myself to try and use one monitor, but I think ideally a trader needs three as a minimum. BUT...that being said, only if what's on the three monitors serves to simplify the act of trading.

Paralysis from analysis is a real and deadly issue. If I can say one thing, it is that I have long ago stopped hesitating. If anything I should be more sure the trade is valid.

I think I have been enthralled with the lower time frame because I am usually rushed and like to see trades working if I only have a few minutes to check the screens. I will keep tracking both time frames. Any thoughts?

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System Overview

This system is tested almost exclusively on the Emini SP.
It also works on the YM, NQ and ESTX50 equally well.

My system is designed to show many small signals per day. If I had to classify myself as a trader, I am more comfortable going countertrend. The system performs equally well giving countertrend and trend signals and picks tops and bottoms nearly to the tick.

I initially was looking for 2 and 2. A 2 point profit or a 2 point loss. I have found that I need a smaller stop on average and if I shoot for 1 point - it usually wins more often.
Currently I am tracking it's performance based on 1 point target and a 1.5 point stop. My starting daily goal would be 2 points as a minimum income baseline.

I am logging in remotely to my machine and therefore working with a signifigant delay in placing orders. I am using this as training so that once I am on my local machine trading I will be even better. I get sometimes minutes a day and sometimes hours a day to watch the markets live. Usually, I am rushed or distracted.

Obviously with this years volatility some trades are going 4-8 points, but I am allowing myself to avoid shooting for the moon with each trade knowing that consistent base hits can be a great way to make a living.

To quote a great movie:
"Small moves Ellie" (Contact)

My trading history and my systems history.

2003
I was running a computer repair company with my brother when a "daytrader" called with a computer issue. He could tell I was interested in trading. He began letting me borrow trading books and answering my thousands of questions via email. Within a few months I got together enough money to open an account with Scottrade and I began trading.

2004
Needless to say, I was not very good and was without a solid system or a plan. I had learned a great deal about technical analysis, but it was not enough to assure instant success. I lost about 50% of the initial account before I discovered Pristine's training and swing trading.

2005
I was able to regain my 50% loss within about 3 months with solid, consistent longs and shorts while swing trading. This was a good period and what felt like a short learning curve.

2006
Priorities changed and by this time I was working again "for the man". I was able to take and close swing positions from work in the mornings, but it was hectic. I was eventually laid off and formulated a plan to trade full time. Although I did not become a successful trader during this time, I did discover the Emini's and Traders International. The Eminis were it for me.

2006-2007
Traders International was a good overall exposure to systems and the Eminis. Their goal of two points a day was so important to me. I just was not emotionally ready to depend on trading as income. I went back to work and made the best of it over the next few years, but trading always kept coming back to mind.

2007-2008
I would check the charts at night to see what trades I missed and how things were going. It was clear this trading thing was holding my interest.

2008-2009
In early 2008, I stumbled upon a new way to use an indicator for trading the futures. Initially it appeared very promising, but I was not able to get it to perform better than 50% of the time. In the later part of 2008 I came back to the indicator and made some changes and started back testing.

It seemed to have merit and I began looking for ways to tweak it further. Eventually in very late 2008 I made a change in my charts that was shocking. The constant market swings became crystal clear. The system began delivering an obscene amount of trades per day with a 70-90% accuracy rate.

2009
The system has performed consistently for over 4 months. I have made my points simulating even on light volume holiday trading days.

Disbelief has turned into denial which has turned into acceptance. It appears I have found my own personal "holy grail". I will continue tracking and simutrading this until the opportunity to go live as a part time trader arrives.

Early March 2009
I am continuing to simutrade whenever I can. The system itself is doing well. but I am finding that I am too impulsive in taking signals that have not quite formed. I will try and honor tighter stops and confirmed signals only.
Late March 2009
Things are coming together quickly now. I understand what the system is showing me. I have found larger S&R concepts I am comfortable with. I am initiating trades from both the system and S&R levels. Confluence of the S&R and the system trades can really make for a non stress entry. My S&R is also showing me when moves could trend longer and why some moves do not go anywhere.

May 2009
I have been reading more about Market Profile, but is still really difficult to use it trading or to fully understand it. I have settled on some key S&R concepts and have been trading my system as much as possible in my situation.

Things are going very well, certainly better than I had hoped. I have kept the systems main settings the same and rarely experiment anymore with my supplemental indicators.

I continue to follow other trading blogs and read trading books looking for confirmation of current knowledge and new ideas. I also take free trials of popular trading rooms on the internet when I can. So far, I feel fairly confident saying I outperform most of what I see on the market. (bearing in mind that I am simutrading).

June-July 2009

I am simutrading the system every chance I get. I still face issues in cutting losers quickly which is a mental block.

I thought I had a "eureka" moment discovering an automated pattern group. It appears taking the signal without any thought, can lead to 50/50 or less than 50/50 results. I am still using those patterns, but only within the framework of the base system and S&R areas.

In early July I am have discovered what I am calling the "new system" which is nothing more than something that was occuring within the base system that I never noticed.

Quest for the Holy Grail

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Longer Time Frame Signals

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Recommended Reading

Do you trade the futures?

How to read my headlines

System Overview

My trading history and my systems history.

Blog Archive

Who Am I

Followers

Quest for the Holy Grail

Tuesday, March 17, 2009

Longer Time Frame Signals

No comments:

Post a Comment

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Recommended Reading

Do you trade the futures?

How to read my headlines

System Overview

My trading history and my systems history.

Blog Archive

Who Am I

Followers