Thursday 93% - Tougher than Normal

Base System: 40W - 3L = 43T = 93% Potential

Sub System: 17W - 1L 18T = 94.4% Potential

Trading Accuracy: 70.59%

Net P&L: +$355.90

Net Points: + 7

I was on and off for a total of about 30 minutes early this morning.

It was a tougher day than normal and I ate a good chunk in fees. I scaled in a few trades and was fortunate enough to have the initial setup eventually pay off. Although the net is positive, I feel like the day was even at best and certainly could have been negative. That aside - lots of great signals when I was not near the screen and a great overall day for the system.

Still trading blind without S&R levels this week.

Chart of the day shows some great back to back signal action at the open. This would have been a wonderful day to get your points and get away from the screen for the day.

My data and charting is ..... affordable!

I wanted to point out to any newbies that you do not have to spend a ton of money per month to evaluate the markets daily and learn to trade a system.

I use Interactive Brokers Data: $10 per month if not trading.
Quotetracker for charting: $7 a month registered, $0 yes free if you want ads in the top bar.
Ninjatrader and Bracket Trader or order entry (free for simulations)

So right now it costs me $17 a month for all this simulating I am doing.

I hear plenty of complaints about Tradestation and Esignal as far as data speeds and lagging during fast action. Those services cost anywhere from $75 to $200 a month I think.

So for now - although I am sure I have random lag - I can say this combo at $17 a month is fast enough to be beating the big boys on the ES daily. So whatever you may think, it is working more than well enough for $17 a month.

FOMC Wednesday 88.1%

Base System: 52W - 7L = 59T = 88.1%
Sub System: 17W - 1L = 18T = 94.4% (nice)

Trading Accuracy: 80%
Net Profit: +$493.00
Net Points: +9.75

Today was FOMC day which always leads to whipsawed market action. I was in and out throughout the day, but never for more than 2-5 minutes. Even in those short logins I was able to see decent signals and manage some good trades. I started the day with 1 point while I was getting dressed in the pre market (love those types of trades).

Chart of the day shows two signals that formed at the FOMC time - both were potential big winners. It is sometimes risky trading around news - but the signals were clear as a bell. It was encouraging that I got my points during the slower part of the day which for many traders I would guess was horrible trading.

Tuesday: 79.6% No Time

Base system: 43W- 11L = 54T = 79.6%

Sub System: 17W -0L = 17T = 100%

Trading Accuracy: 78.57%

Net P&L: +$370.30

Net Points: +7.0

The sub system is back! 100% again on the subsystem with a bunch of UGLY signals.

I did not have much time at all this morning, maybe 30 minutes on and off. I caught some good signals and some intuitive signals based on indicator movement though.

I did not have the motivation to get my pivot levels for the week, so I am still trading blind.

A prepared trader is much better off than a trader who thinks he can sit down and just win.

There is less and less doubt about the system as weeks and months go by. There is plenty of doubt though about the mental stress of trying to do this for a living consistently.

Chart of the day shows a nice signal that usually goes at least 2 points and sometimes starts a trend. Today was the latter.

Monday: 93.9% potential - but...Look out below on the daily charts

Base System: 46W-3L =49T for 93.9%

Sub System: 15W - 1L =16T for 93.8%

Trading Accuracy: 78.95%

Net Profit: +$571.30

Net Points: +10.5

I only had about 45 minutes slightly before and through the opening today to watch the markets. Although I did trade aggressive, I managed to scrape out enough wins early. I caught one of my favorite setups. Its a back to back long signal where the 2nd signal becomes a double bottom. This signal usually reverses the market and can be "double dipped". I take 1 point on the first run up, then rebuy on the 2nd and hold for 1.5 or 2 points. I was trading blind without my S&R levels which is always more risky.

My daily chart shows a potential short signal coming up tomorrow. If we close lower tomorrow it could form a poorly shaped short, which could signal a quick run downwards.

Chart of the day shows "the system" picking yet another top.

Friday 83.8% Rough Day Bulls Win

Base: 62W 12L 74T : 83.8%

Sub: 19W 1L 20T: 95%

Trading Accuracy: 57.14%

Net P&L: +442.80

Net Points: +8.25

I ended the day up, but was not in sync with the markets. It was partially due to the slow plodding trend up. There must have been institutional buying today. I was surprised to see my P&L was net positive on the day after my scared, rule free trading. I was using 1-3 contracts and practicing scaling out and taking quick losses.

I was scaling out one contract if price moved against me and also did manage to take some quick stops. This showed some discipline. I am also getting fairly good at seeing major market shifts forming and getting in place for those.

I ended the week in the positive territory. Mentally though I had some setbacks and hope to get some quality screen time next week. I already know Monday will be busy as far as work.
Chart of the day shows a nice reversal I caught. I was able to scale out of this one nicely.

Thursday 88.7% - No Time To trade

Base: 55W 7L 62T 88.7%
Sub: 20W 4L 24T 83.3%

Trading Accuracy: 50%
Net P&L:(-$34.80)
Net Points: (-.25)

Not much time today to trade - one winner one loser left me pretty much flat. Signal wise it was a very good day.

88% Smackdown

Base System: 41W-4L=45T=88%
Sub System: 13W-2L=15T=85.7%

Trading Accuracy: 66%
Net P&L: (-$392.10)
Net Points: (-6.75)

Started the day really bad and was down $1000 plus. Recovered that back to negative $300 and blew up goofing around. Cleared the P&L out. Switched back over to Ninjatrader and could not get the feel today, although it was a good trading day. Got some good trades, but kept giving it back. Discouraging yes, but all in all that's how it goes sometimes.

We had some decent S&R trades, but I was not always in sync with the bigger picture and scared to be short after those run ups!

No chart today, I don't deserve one.

91.1% Caution your pets

Base System: 41W-4L=45T= 91.1%
Sub System: 13W-2L= 86.7%

Trading Accuracy: 80%
Net profit: +$395.40
Net Points: +6.75

I had under one hour to watch the markets today and it was not a calm rational hour either. Very distracted and placed some bad trades. I did manage to pull off a winning day though. I missed most of the great S&R trades today, I saw at least 6 of them or more.

My P&L seemed off so I checked my DOM. It appears a short was placed while I was driving to work. I double checked and I do not see any reason why this would have been. Either I was hacked, or a house cat stepped on my mouse. I did deduct that loss from my posted P&L. I did not place this order and this was a first. If I include that loss I still made more than my daily goal, so all things considered a great day.

We had some serious buying going on and almost hit that 850 level which I was waiting for to hammer the longs. Chart of the day shows a long trade at the open. I was in this one, but had to jump out early due to work. I actually got into two of the huge long moves today, but was not able to trail loose enough to get the major move.

81% Doomsday! Against the trend Monday

Base System: 34W-8L=42T= 81%

Sub System: 12W-3L= 80%

Trading Accuracy: 88.24% 15 Wins 1 loss 1 Break Even

Net profit: +$907.00

Net Points: +18 points

Today looked like the END OF THE WORLD. We gapped down and continued to tank the whole day like clockwork. I traded longs and shorts, slightly favoring shorts. Even in this massive down move I grabbed long profits, love it! Now we have an open gap which will be a nice trade in the future I am sure.

I had left my DOM set to two contracts, so I went with it. There is nothing more satisfying than getting your initial target, having the stop automatically move to breakeven and trailing a small runner to see what else you can get. There is no stress at that point. I did try and peel off one contract if the move was going against me more than 1 point.

Most of my trading was in the lunchtime doldrums and slightly thereafter. Things just felt good today, I was again in the zone. I connected a new way today to my home pc and had quite a bit less delay, although at times it was still a handicap in trade management. My one big loss was a full stop out while I was driving to work and away from the screen. But I kept it in my P&L anyway to try and recover from it.

The best signal of the day was fast moving long (while I was away of course). See attached chart.

87.5% Get me angry, I will kick your a**

Base System: 35W 5L 40T = 87.5%
Sub System: 13W 2L 15T 15T = 86.7%

Trading: +$531.80
Net Points: +10.25
Accuracy: 68.89%

I was trading 2 contracts today. 1 point target, then move stop to break even and a tight stop on the runner. I was in the zone early and was up $1199.00. I had something like 14 winners, 1 loss and 2 breakevens at this point.

I took a short which went against me and the market then continued to literally plod upward many many points during lunchtime. It was a complete and utter bizarre move. I have no clue as to what was occurring...tick by tick by tick just low volume no volatility plodding.
I had made the bad decision to continue to average in contracts and was completely and utterly angry at the markets oddball rise. I had resigned myself to losing it all and more, but I had to be right. I was wrong. When I finally decided to start peeling off contracts and accept the loss gradually, I accidentally closed the entire position. Now I was NEGATIVE $550 on the day - WOW. I should really learn my lesson on this having to be right stuff.
The mistake had been made and then compounded and I was ready to call it a day. Instead I continued looking for setups and when confirmed I would trade 2-5 contracts. I cleared my zero mark and went on to profitably close the day.
I lost track of my S&R levels and it got me into trouble. When I finally did get the short I was waiting for - I did not realize it was a major S&R levels - so I missed about 1.5 points by taking a small trade because I was mentally scarred from the move up.

Never trade angry and need to be right. I enjoy the challenge of a comeback after a drawdown, even though I know mentally and financially its a risky thing. The system is awesome - I just have to take some losers gracefully.

Chart of the day shows the plodding upward move followed by the 2 point short that I only caught a tiny bit of.

82.3% Unattended Trading not advisable

Base System: 32W 8L 40T = 80.0%
Sub System: 13W 2L 15T = 86.7%

Trading: Net -$173.00
Net Points: -3.25

I was up 6.5 points early and then saw what looked like a perfect short. I had to leave the office so I placed a massive stop and a target. You guessed it - I did not get my target filled but my 9 point stop was hit, go figure. So rather than say it did not happen - I will admit to the loss and post it here for posterity. I am having a great week and this is not much of a P&L hit considering what a huge loss it was in points.

Solid day otherwise, some very nice trades and some nice S&R trades. I am confident I would have rocked out another winning day had I been able to trade later in the day.

No charts today, tomorrow is another day.

80.3% Beating the Odds

Base System: 32W - 8L for 40T = 80.3%
Sub System: 14W - 0L for 14T = 100%

Trading Accuracy: 83.33%
Net P&L: +$1222.60
Net Points: +24.45 points

I follow quite a few blogs and I am taking notice that I am more consistent than other traders, some on sim, some for real and some really top notch traders. This is very encouraging. This has all to do with the system I have created and my interpretation of it and nothing to do with my level of experience. When I start trading for real I expect to take small profits from the market at best for a long time before moving up in contracts and being mentally ready. For now this is excellent simulation and training and a good example of what "will be". Negative thoughts aside. I am learning what is too greedy and how much damage can be done but not following my guidelines.

I started out the day -$500 on some bad trades and scale ins. I took a large stop out knowing I would never want to be that far against me in the market in real trading, so I took the full stop out. Yes, you can guess, it came right back and I would have reduced the loss by 75%. But thinking like that will get you killed. After that, another few mistakes like scale ins instead of the reverse buttons left me with a nice challenge to recover from. Today I traded 1 contract mainly in the a.m. and added 1 for 2 total on the afternoon trades. I was using a 2 point stop, a 1 point target then a break even stop and a 1.5 target on the second. This was working extremely well for me and was the first chance for me to see the potential of using just two contracts rather than one. I was even by lunch and proceeded to get in the zone on quite a few trades after that.

It was an aggressive day, but also a very rewarding day with some great trades. Today was a mix of system, market internals and key S&R levels. Chart of the day shows a nice short and shows the bottom picking power of the base system. The subsystem had another 100% day! The signals on the subsystem are not as clean as the base system usually. I do not have the screen real estate to comfortably trade both.

I am going to try and talk myself into not monitoring the markets tomorrow during work. Today was an amazing performance and I have read its best to relax and take a break after such a day. I will post my usual stats after I get home, with the exception of trading stats. Good luck everyone.

91.3% Fight the Power

Base System: 42W 4L 46T = 91.3%
Sub System: 15W 2L 17T = 88.2%

Trading Accuracy: 71.43%
Net Profit: +$614.70
Net Points: +12.0

Had a decent amount of time today, with only a few issues because of leaving the screen. Battled it out with a lot of nice trades, small trades. Today was a mix of the system, S&R levels and market internals. Obviously when you have more than one of those, the odds increase. I am confirming now that the system illustrates the price action at S&R levels. This is why it works. There are false signals and back to back signals at times however and therein lies the challenge.

Chart of the day shows a fast moving short, which I missed.

82.4% Trust the system

Base System: 28W - 6L = 34T = 82.4%
Sub System: 12W - 12L = 11T = 85.7%


Trading Accuracy: 68.42%
Net: +288.80
Net: +5.25 Points

What an amazing day running up on ZERO volume for the day. We hit a larger resistance line near the end of the day which explains why I was so frustrated. I had tried to short well before it, not realizing it was there, since I had moved it off my screen. Today was another bad day for discipline getting stuck in some major moves the wrong way. Could have, would have yadda yadda. I need to stick with the rules. I burned a huge chunk in commissions.

So many times I get a signal that if I try and unthink it, it moves so far against me it isn't funny. I should trust the system, it is incredible.

Chart of the day shows a short off the top and a nice signal off the bottom.

89.2% Did I miss something?

Base System: 33W - 4L = 37T = 89.2%
Sub System: 7W - 1L = 8T = 87.5%

Trading Accuracy: 100%
Net: +95.20
Net: +2 Points

I had about 30 seconds to watch the market today. It just so happened in that 30 seconds I saw the worlds most perfect setup. Base system, tick and major S&R level came together like a puzzle. Took the trade, set a 2 point target and a 2 point stop and walked away. Got my target by just a hair.

The markets have lost quite a bit of their volatility over the last week or so, but the range is still good. My signal count is way down from the record 100+ signal days.

Did I miss some news or something? The market blew out right past all S&R levels. Did we pull out of Iraq while holding the oil fields for our use, what the heck went on???? Why are buyers suddenly flooding the market or was it stops being hit? I think we will give a nice chunk of today's run up back next week for sure after the bandwagon buyers get hammered early next week.

855 looks to be upside resistance and we nearly hit that today. The system had a lot of nice looking signals today, very trade able day both directions.

Chart of the day is the trade I took.

85.7% Wednesday - The Battle Rages On

Base System: 36W-6L=42T= 85.7% Sub System: 13W-1L=14T= 92.9% Trading Accuracy: 87.5% Net P&L: +$680.00 Net Points: +13.25

I had some decent views of the markets for small segments today without many distractions. I took a few big hits early against the uptrend in the morning, but I made a solid comeback on nice signals throughout the day. I am finding that as good as the system is, I really like taking my TICK system trades or at least having confirmation from the TICK when I get a base system signal.

I was not able to stay disciplined 100% again today which was a disappointment.

Chart of the day shows two longs and a short and an example of a losing trade.

88.9% Da Boyz are back in town

Base System: 32W-4L=36T=88.9% Sub System: 11W-0L=11T=100% YM Mini: 26W-5L=31T=83.9% Trading Accuracy: 75% Net Profit: +$607.90 Net Points: +12 Points

I had a decent amount of on and off time to watch the markets. I was still distracted and rushed, but the time was enough to more than get my game back on after yesterdays reckless mess. I had a really slow internet connection and I blew out about 5 trades because the screen was not updating fast enough! I would try and move a target and end up closing the trade. This was a real challenge today and really shows me why I need to have a direct connection if I am trading live.

Signal of the day is a CRAZY long after a huge down candle.

85.4% Chaos at work

Base System: 41W - 7L = 48T = 85.4%
Sub System: 10W - 12L = 11T = 90.9%
YM Mini: 28W-2L=30T= 93.3%

Trading Accuracy: 50%
Net: -437.50
Net: -8.25 Points

Had a bad morning with a few impulse trades followed by large stop outs while away from the screen due to chaos at work. This was followed up by the normal disorganized Monday at work with tons of unplanned travel leaving me pretty dejected on the day as whole. Less than 10 minutes to watch the markets can make me jumpy and willing to get in right away.

Things got better when I got home and saw the end result was another solid trading day for the systems. I could have recovered my losses if I had time to trade, I am confident in that. I also had a lot of trades off S&R levels that confirmed system signals as well as TICK trades I have been working on, those were nearly 100% today. Just fantastic.

Trade of the day was an amazing long right in the face of a massive down move. I was in this trade long for a profit.

Base System Example

Imagine finding a quirky system that seems to often pick market tops and bottoms.  Then imagine finally figuring out why.  It is a great feeling and certainly can reduce stress in trading.  Here is a perfect example of a base system signal that was off a weekly pivot this week.  Although I did not have the pivot line on my screen, I had a beautiful entry signal short at this candle.

91.7% Know thyself and thysoftware

Base System: 33W - 3L = 36T = 91.7%
Sub System: 10W - 2L = 12T = 83.3%

Trading Accuracy: 100% then zilch then 87.5%
Net: +284.80
Net: 5.25 Points

I was recording a seminar today on my home machine, so I used my laptop for the first time to watch the markets. A 15" screen makes things a bit more challenging. I was up over 6 points early on and due to not knowing Bracket Trader well, I blew out a big trade. I erased all my profit. I thought I was adding a contract and instead I moved my stop to close. I had issues with Ninjatrader, so I had loaded Bracketrader. This was a good lesson. I regrouped and recovered to end the day profitable.

Base System: 54W - 12L = 66T = 81.8%

Base System: 54W - 12L = 66T = 81.8%
Sub System: 21W - 1L = 20T = 95.4%

Trading Accuracy: 100%
Net: +250.00
Net: 5 Points

I did not have much time at all again today to watch the markets. All together I may have been able to watch the markets while distracted for a max of 25 minutes. I got shaken out of 4 trades close to or at even. I left some profit on the table due to having to close the screens with my orders in place. That said, the signals felt good and the system had a great overall day. I had a mix of longs and shorts today.

I am clueless as to why we gapped so high today, as I do not listen to much news. I think it's time to start naming the signals so I can resume tracking their individual effectiveness. Today's signal will be named HPH. What is interesting is with price action alone I would never have entered this trade, but due to the HPH signal I got in and quickly got my profit with no heat at all.

HPH is fairly rare most days. I have a feeling this will be a high probability signal.

40W 5L 45T= 88.9% Nice.

Base System: 40W 5L 45T= 88.9%
Sub System: 19W 6L 25T = 76%

The market was roaring up today and I made all my points in shorts. I had almost no time to trade at all, I saw maybe 5 minutes of the market in bits through the day. The nice thing was I saw signals each time and was able to profit on the day more than my daily goal.

Trading:
Net $162.50
Net 3.25 points
Accuracy: 100%

The only thing I did wrong was leave profits on the table, other than that I was disciplined. I had one S&R pre market trade and two base system trades.

My signal of the way was a killer short on a very HIGH probability signal type.