Friday, May 29, 2009

Friday: 84.8% Hack Attack -$30.50




Base System: 39T-7L=46W= 84.8%
Sub System: 15W-2L=17T= 88.2%

I had to place many absentee, large stop, speculative orders today due to lack of time and lack of location for trading. That led to a large loss, followed by some 4-5 contract guesses, wrapped up with good trading to recover with a short session near the close.

Chart of the day shows a long amid the chop. The 1m charts today are a holy nightmare. Trades must have gotten torn apart over and over.

Thursday: 73.1% No Trades


Base System: 38W-14L=52T= 73.1%
Sub System: 19W-2L=21T= 90.5%

No time for trades today. Chart of the day shows 4 back to back losers for those who had the nerves to take the signals against that move. I thought it's only fair to show the system failing miserably from time to time.

Wednesday, May 27, 2009

Wednesday: 88.1% In and Out +$332.80







Base System: 37W-8L=42T=88.1% potential
Sub System: 13W-2L=15T= 86.6% potential

I traded very little today since I was busy. A really choppy day overall, which is what the system excels at! Some nice signals to be had, had I been there. I am still having trouble dropping a trade that looks good on the TICK, even when the system says it's going opposite. I think the majority of the time the system is right and I need to get back to that mindset.

Chart of the day shows an "assumption" long entry on the left, followed by a stop out and the actual entry needed after on a long. This type of signal usually means a long move is coming, but only if you can monitor the indicator. I needed to leave the screen after placing my order, so I made an assumption on the bottom. The signal was good except I needed to get in slightly lower, therefore I was stopped out since I did not adjust my stop for the fact I was leaving the screen.

On the chart to the right we have a fantastic short at 12:25 which I was not there for. Finally after all the chop the market broke down. On the additional chart we have a picture perfect bounce at the pivot on a TICK extreme today.

Tuesday, May 26, 2009

Tuesday: 78.1 What was that? +$442.90




Base System: 25W-8L=32T= 78.1%
Sub System: 13W-3L=16T= 81.5%

I started out today with a quick batch of winners in the premarket and into the open. I was up 9 points net. Then after catching some of the rocket ship long, I tried to fade the TICKS and got hammered. Of course I kept scaling in and eventually once I decided this was totally unrealistic I closed it for a massive loss in the thousands. I clawed my way back with high contracts small moves and by 9:30 I was -$1100 or so. Around 10:30 I logged in from the slow Internet connection and traded a few quick signals to end the day up net + $450 or so.

Obviously the number of contracts and the low total in comparison shows some seriously bad decision making on my part. On the flip side/bright side the system really did not really fail me on that massive run up. There was one clear short signal around 9:20 which eventually did fail out.

I do not track the news or announcements. I am unsure what this move today was all about. We do get these huge moves and I need to evaluate and see if I can find a filter to keep me out of counter trend moves during these times. 70% of the time I am fine, but when we get these emotional, irrational moves, I can really get in trouble.

The chart of the day shows when I got the initial long signal before the explosion at the open. let's face it, the chart really should show what a mess I made of the day. Trying to stay positive here...I am managing to run with trend more since I learning what short signals that usually fail look like. Recently quite often, I see a short signal that I know usually fails and I just buy at the market. I usually win those trades if I am patient. I am evolving in my interpretation of the system.


Monday, May 25, 2009

Friday: 88% Could not Resist +$1512.50




Base System: 22W-3L=25T= 88% potential
Sub System: 11W-2L=13T= 84.6% potential

The market looked "normal" and seemed to be giving decent signals. Since I had a great chance to give the market my nearly full attention, I decided to go all out. I technically traded badly generating just $1500 off of 100 contracts traded. I did have one really bad trade I let run against me. I did however kill off many losers quickly and did manage to scalp small winners off of high probability continuations from earlier signals. (this was a new tactic). I was layering 5-10 contracts and scalping .5 points off of moves I really felt would go slightly higher.

I like to be active, which can be a detriment in trading. There are certainly higher probability plays with my system. If I waited for those and pressed those setups with more contracts, I think I could really have a nice risk to reward ratio.
I wrapped up before noon so I did not see the afternoon session. It looks like we had slow trends up and the smashing shorts coming down fast. Maybe it was market orders on stops getting triggered.

Chart of the day shows a nice clear short mid morning.

Thursday, May 21, 2009

Thursday: 86.5% Break Time +386.60 @ 100%




Base System: 32W-5L=37T=86.5%
Sub System: 9W-1L= 10T = 90%

I caught some pre market action this morning while I was shaving again. I did have to leave this trade open while I drove to work. My analysis was right and the trade closed profitably for me. I took two trades once at work and one of those I had to walk away from the screen. I closed both profitably with a nice nearly two pointer on trade two. I knew my time was short so I felt 100% profitable on some great trading was good enough for me. I checked the market once in the afternoon, but had the discipline to look and log out without opening a position.

The past two days have presented textbook S&R level trading. I see nearly 12 opportunities at the various S&R levels I utilize. Simply perfect low stress trading. Even though I most likely will have time tomorrow to watch the markets a lot, I am really going to try and ignore them. I might log in around noon just to see how the Friday into a holiday is looking. I have been trading well and it is time to take a day or two away from the fray.

Enjoy your holiday everyone and I hope to back in the game Tuesday. Chart of the day shows two of the trades I was in.

Wednesday, May 20, 2009

Wednesday: 90% +$622.30 Minimal Action




Base System: 36W -4L=40T = 90%
Sub System: 13W - 3L= 16T = 81.3%

Yet again, not much time to trade. I caught some pre market LONG action off the pivot level while shaving this morning. Then massive travel for work, then a busy day where I snuck in a few hectic trades. I had a 1 pointer completed, but felt it was going to go for more. It did not and I ended up scaled in waiting nearly an hour for the move to come. By the time it finally did what I had expected, I was in for 14 contracts (I had my DOM set to 3 at a time). The bigger problem was as it finally popped, I only got 3/4 point out of it because I had to be away from the screen and felt compelled to finally close the trade early. It went on to deliver quite a few more points very quickly. My daily total would be more like $1500 had I waited.

I don't want to sound like I am making excuses. First off I never should in 14 contracts, not now and not for a long time to come. Secondly, trying to trade while working and avoiding prying eyes is really nerve wracking. On the other hand, I will suffer a real adjustment period if I ever get to give the market full attention!

Chart of the day shows the initial signal at 11am CST which delivered 1 point - the right side of the chart shows the move I was waiting for and finally caught a little bit of. I guess with only 15 total contracts traded today I did ok. For the most part my average profit per contract has been growing and my fees have been shrinking.








Tuesday, May 19, 2009

Think outside the box, but with things you learned in the box.


This whole 915 resistance level was driving me nuts. Then I remembered....

Over the weekend I took market profile concepts, but applied them in my own way. I created a market profile spreadsheet and highlighted a few key levels. Then of course I quickly forgot about it thinking it was just conjecture on my part. Tonight after I remembered I had made this spreadsheet, I applied some key levels to todays trading.

This chart speaks for itself, it will have to, because I am speechless.
Feel free to use these levels to make some cash this week.

Tuesday: 93.1% +$739.60 Lucky One




Base System: 27W-2L=29T= 93.1%
Sub System: 9W-1L=10T = 90%

We obviously had some resistance in the 915-914 level, although I don't see it on my S&R charts - maybe I can analyze that later and figure out what was there.

I had an hour or so this morning to watch the markets, followed by two absentee trades and then three severely handicapped trades. I was up 4-5 points and had to leave the office with a position open. The long trade did indeed go my way and I was lucky enough to have a 1 contract runner waiting for me when I logged back in. I did that one more time later in the day and again had a runner waiting for me.

Much later in the day I tried trading, but the Internet connection where I was at, was painfully slow. We are talking a 1-3 second delay in placing and adjusting orders. I managed a winner or two, but when I missed a trade due to lag, I decided to wrap it up. Imagine trading on a 17" monitor which is then 40% smaller due to logmein, with a delay and no privacy as far as someone catching me trading...talk about handicapping a trader!

Chart of the day shows what I call a no pressure LONG signal. When I see this particular signal I know we are at the bottom and if its not the bottom, the bottom is really close. This was the first trade where I had a runner for 3 points. I really need to get into a position where every trade allows me to try and get a runner. My profits would really go up exponentially. For every two or three that would come back and stop me at +0 or +.25 I would get a trade where I could get 2 points or more on the second contract. The short at the top was perfect but I got scared out! It had not even come close to running my stop, but due to my trading conditions I just did not feel like taking a loss.

Monday, May 18, 2009

Monday: 92.8% +$1004.20 Time To Trade




Base System: 26W - 2L = 28T = 92.8% Potential
Sub System: 6W - 1L = 7T = 85.7% Potential

As of tonight, I will begin posting my actual P&L statement daily from Ninjatrader. I have been honest with my numbers in the past, but this will provide even more proof or transparency, take your pick.
I have made a point to stick with the basic systems indicator setup for as long as possible. I am fully aware that a person can forever tweak settings searching for a certainty that will never be there in trading. I am confirming I am still leaving those settings alone going forward. I did however trade today by going back to some original settings on other indicators I use. The older settings really seemed to help me today. So the advice is, be somewhat flexible to change, but trade the settings long enough to really try them out.

Today was a quiet day as far as the systems signals. I did manage to trade some system and a lot of S&R and tick trades. I was more disciplined and cut many losers quickly. I never used more than 4 contracts and many times was only using 1 or 2. I missed some great runners because I filled for a 1 point target. Part of the reason for this is I am unsure how to get Ninjatrader to allow me to control each contract on it's own (if I have added one after the initial buy). I guess it's time to check their site for webinars and information.

I will admit to being a bit skittish early in the day after Friday's reckless mess. I was considering closing my DOM for the day when I was up $600 +Net, but with todays uptrend I kept seeing chances to get back in long. We bounced off some nice S&R levels for some nice shorts as well.

Chart of the day shows some back to back action. I caught the long, but was unsure about the short and missed it.


Off Topic: Windows 7 RC1

Just wanted to say I have been running Windows 7, 7000 beta and now 7100 RC1 for quite awhile. It works very well. Windows Vista was indeed better than XP after it got its Service Pack and driver support eventually caught up. Although Vista got a reputation by word of mouth that it was garbage, it is indeed better than XP as far as security, encryption, backup, performance monitoring etc.

Windows 7 has conflicting test results on the net concerning it's speed. I can tell you it runs faster on the same hardware than Vista. I was unable to run Vista sanely on my "Vista Capable" cheapo laptop, but Windows 7 runs decent on it. That was the final proof for me.

Windows 7 is another step up in features and usability. I would not tell anyone to run their only trading machine on it for live trading, but if you want to see where Windows is heading, go download it and load it up.

Friday, May 15, 2009

Friday: 85.3%: Shouda Wouda Couda


Base System: 35W-6L=85.3% Potential
Sub System: 10W-1L=11T= 90.9% Potential
Trading Accuracy: 60.57%

Net P&L: -$2677.50 (negative)
Net Points: -53.5
Contracts Traded: 175


Shouda stopped trading when I was up $600 net on some good trading early.

Wouda not lost massive had I not kept scaling in a loser.

Couda recovered if I had another 2 hours to trade.


Today I was scaling in against what became a massive downmove. This trend day down has been coming for awhile. Normally I can scale and recover, but this time when I was down like 20 contracts plus on 4 points I decided to be real and close it out. I was now down -$5500.00. I did manage to recover 1/2.

Naturally the market bottomed shortly thereafter, but I had accepted my fate. I had some decent trades after that trying to recover, but nothing great. Before I knew it it was closing time and I was still down.

When I do this scale in a loser process...I rely on the tick. But with a move like today a bottoming tick happens over and over and over. On the lighter side we had some fantastic plays today off of many S&R levels. I do like to think that someday if I can have 2-3 charts up with various S&R levels, I would do even better than I have been doing. Most of the time I am trading blind and trusting the TICK and my system.

This day has not phased me. There were NO GOOD SIGNALS telling me to be long during the MASSIVE downmove . I had starting buying before the pivot and kept adding as we went down. The pivot did not hold at all. Had I waited and taken the trades that the system gave me, I would have been more than fine and had a profitable day. I got cocky and I got schooled, end of story.

Chart of the day shows the sequence that wiped me out. As you can see the first two longs failed, while the third picked the bottom. All the shorts worked perfectly.

Thursday, May 14, 2009

Thursday: 90.2 % Solid System Day


Base System: 37W-4L=41T=90.2% Potential
Sub System: 10W-1L=11T=90.9% Potential

Trading Accuracy: 66.67%
Net P&L: +$453.00
Net Points: + 9

The systems signals worked well today. We also have some S&R bounces that would have been additional winners. I had a 1.5 point premarket winner, followed by a early market scale in disaster, which I recovered nicely and scaled out in three steps again. Finally a quick short in the afternoon. If I can just get the hang of closing with a small loser on a counter signal to pickup the following signal I could really increase my profitability. Total number of round trip contracts traded was 15 for a modest fee total of $72, not bad.

Not a bad result considering I had very limited time in the markets again. Chart of the day shows what is becoming my favorite type of signal. I get a signal to go long, which often times moves up then down for one more bottom and then the second long usually sets off a small trend. The problem with this signal is sometimes that first signal takes off. So you normally have to buy that first signal and average in if it falls 1-3 points for that second signal.










Wednesday, May 13, 2009

Wednesday: 85.7% Make one million per hour


Base System: 36W-6L=42T= 85.7% Potential
Sub System: 8W-1L=9T= 88.8% Potential

Trading Accuracy: Approx 50%
Net P&L: + $986.10
Net Points: +19.5

Today was an interesting day. I had no plans to trade due to work, but I arrived back early around 1:30pm CST. I sat down, logged in, saw the market bottoming at that very moment, entered my orders and pounded the market for just over one hour. While it was not the best group of trades ever, I did manage to net near +1k with some intense trading. 1-5 contracts on average and a few times 10. I had two great scale ins and scale outs. Scaled out 6 for +.5 - 2 for +1 and 2 for +1.5 - that felt great. Even when the market was against me, I could sense and tell by my custom tick indicator that I should hang in there. At one point I found myself in a complete battle back and forth between the bulls and bears It eventually filled my profit targets to the upside as I felt the bulls would win and they did.

See my chart of the day for comments.

Tuesday, May 12, 2009

Tuesday: Goofing Off 88%

Base System: 22W-3L=25T=88%
Sub System: 15W - 1L=16T=93.7%

Trading Accuracy: Fudged
Net P&L: +$1556.10
Net Points: +31

Had a surprise day to watch the markets but could not get in the serious mood. Traded lots of contracts, let losers run, small winners highly leveraged. I did end up positive...so who knows???? Good day for the system with a small amount of signals but careless trading by me.

Some good trades - but many bad unrealistic trades, so calling today a scratch.

Monday, May 11, 2009

Monday 91.4% - Scratch Day


Base System: 32W-3L=35T=91.4%
Sub System: 15W-1L=16T=93.7%

Trading Accuracy: 58.33%
Net P&L: +142.40 Let's call it zero.
Net Points: +2.25

I am calling today a scratch because I did not have any time to trade. One premarket loser - one premarket winner and a hail mary going into the close left me positive, but not because of disciplined trading. So today is "0" on the balance sheet.

Work had unexpected travel and will most likely have it again tomorrow - so I have no time to trade. I am really hoping no emergencies come up Wednesday and I am hoping I can be in the office and get some good time in at the screen.

The chart of the day today shows a LOSER. Looked like a nice short off of resistance but stalled.

Friday, May 8, 2009

Friday: 92.3% The system is rocking today


Base System: 48W-4L=52T=92.3%
Sub System: 12W-2L=14T=85.7%


Trading Accuracy: 64.71%
Net P&L: +948.60
Net Points: +18.75

Another profitable week, but with some shaky risky trading.

I have read some comments about "systems" not being good or working when it comes to trading. All I can say is I have never been this consistent, ever, period. Using my system I have the the ability to pick a potential trade almost at at will in any market condition at anytime of day. At times I have surgical precision with trades barely going a tick against me. Other times I have to average in up or down if I feel I am getting the opportunity to get a better price. Of course at times I average in and get burned and try and get out even or +.25 on 4-6 contracts as well! That is my biggest downfall and my greatest risk. I make the majority of my points on 1-2 contracts and 1-1.5 point winners.

I had quite a bit of time today to watch the market, off and on as always. I racked up a solid gain today on a LOT of trades. Overall I would rate my performance a 2.5 of 5. I was pretty shaky on many trades and just amazing on others. I did manage however to cut many losers off quickly.

Chart of the day shows a great double dip long at the open. On my chart setup I had two chances to get in near the open. I missed the wonderful uptrend though, it was picture perfect on my chart.

Thursday, May 7, 2009

Thursday: 80.4% - Gamblers Anonymous


Base System: 45W-11L=56T=80.4%
Sub System: 16W-2L=18T=88.9%

Trading Accuracy: 64.58%
Net P&L: +144.60
Net Ponts: +2.5

I traded a total of less than 10 minutes today. I managed to get into big trouble on 5-10 contracts early on. I was down over $1600. After that, I only had time to log on twice. I took a quick look at the market, threw in a range of orders below or above the current price. I was rationalizing that if the market was indeed topping or bottom at those moments (as it appeared to be) that I would be scaled in at current or better prices. To my surprise when I got home tonight - I did indeed get filled and the trades both won. Go figure. This left me net positive on the day. I can hardly call that disciplined trading, but a nice surprise after a hard day at work.

I can indeed say I have won big trading in this manner before though. Having the flexibility to scale in lower and higher and take larger risks can payoff at times. It can also erase a weeks worth of gains as well. I was also without S&R levels which I can see worked extremely well today.

Chart of the day shows how sometimes an initial signal leads to a quick drop and another signal lower. These are not very comfortable trades.

Wednesday, May 6, 2009

Wednesday: 76.9% Tough Day


Base System: 30W-9L=39T=76.9%
Sub System: 14W-1L=15T=93.3%

Trading Accuracy: 51%
Net Profit: +214.60
Net Points: +4

Tough day again and I was not able to monitor the market during the time that paid big. I do not do well with constant up trends like today. I was waiting for the 916 area for some shorting, but had to leave before we reached it.

Chart of the day shows a long signal after the breakdown out the 916 area as I had planned.

Tuesday: 94.6% Not Much Time

Base System: 35W-2L=37T=94.6%
Sus System: 11W-2L=13T=84.6%

Trading Accuracy: Unknown
Net P&L +$94.10
Net Points: +1.25

Short day today with not much time in front of the screens. Tough trading as well.
No chart today.

Monday, May 4, 2009

Monday: Tough but in the Green 90.5%


Base system: 38W - 4L = 42T = 90.5% Potential
Sub System: 9W - 3L = 12T = 75% Potential

Trading Accuracy: 69.23% (see notes)
Net P&L: + $697.60
Net Points: 13.75 points

I opened my DOM this morning to a -$384.60 position that must have been left over from Friday, so that effected my percentages today. I traded that into +$ 313.00 Net. A a total net of +697.60 is posted. As a reminder my posted net P&L always includes losses and fees. The system however had some great overall numbers as always.

It was an awful day for me with too many contracts traded overall for the gain I got. There were many 1 contract trades and a few 2-4 on average. I have been using my own ultra modified $TICK indicator to supplement the system and frontrun and confirm system signals. Although I feel I traded bad today, I can say I am getting really good at seeing underlying market changes. I can often finesse entrys and exits before anyone even sees the move coming. The screen time is really having an effect on me in a good way.

Today I was able to check the screens back and forth between work pretty much all day. I am starting to wonder if this is a good thing. By having other attention grabbing things going on, I am not "overanalyzing" the charts every tick. It is good for teaching me to decide and pull the trigger quickly as well. We had some major resistance in the 897.25 range that we eventually broke through. The bulls are clearly in charge lately. I made most of the points on the long side today, which is a first for me.

Chart of the day shows a new back to back signal I have been seeing - and today like a lot of times its set off a reversal. I caught a little bit of this run up.

Friday, May 1, 2009

Friday 84.2% - Solid Week!


Base System: 32W - 6L = 38T = 84.2% potential
Sub System: 13W - 3L = 16T = 81.3% potential

Trading Accuracy: 77.8%
Net P&L: +$814.70
Net Points: +16

5 Winning days in a row! A nice way to wrap up a week where I did not use S&R levels at all. I had quite a bit of time today on and off to watch the markets. I had quickly made about 4-6 points on 1 contract trades before I got into trouble. I averaged in against an uptrend up to 5 contracts. I was close to getting wiped out, but eventually managed it back down for about even out. I did that once more with abour 4 contracts on a long later in the day and some more 1 contract winners for a nice total today. I clearly should have just aken the losses early because I missed about 5 trades while trying to pray to get out even.

Trading one contract for my system is a real handicap. There are times when I need to move a stop and average in higher or lower and then get the back to back signal. I could do very well trading just 2 contracts reliably. If I get a nice day next week where I have substantial time, I will try a solid 2 contract every trade day.

Chart of the day shows a sub system trade - there were two bad signals before this one finally worked, but it did indeed pick a bottom. The sub system is a longer time frame that I cannot trade due to screen size connecting remotely.