Friday, May 15, 2009

Friday: 85.3%: Shouda Wouda Couda


Base System: 35W-6L=85.3% Potential
Sub System: 10W-1L=11T= 90.9% Potential
Trading Accuracy: 60.57%

Net P&L: -$2677.50 (negative)
Net Points: -53.5
Contracts Traded: 175


Shouda stopped trading when I was up $600 net on some good trading early.

Wouda not lost massive had I not kept scaling in a loser.

Couda recovered if I had another 2 hours to trade.


Today I was scaling in against what became a massive downmove. This trend day down has been coming for awhile. Normally I can scale and recover, but this time when I was down like 20 contracts plus on 4 points I decided to be real and close it out. I was now down -$5500.00. I did manage to recover 1/2.

Naturally the market bottomed shortly thereafter, but I had accepted my fate. I had some decent trades after that trying to recover, but nothing great. Before I knew it it was closing time and I was still down.

When I do this scale in a loser process...I rely on the tick. But with a move like today a bottoming tick happens over and over and over. On the lighter side we had some fantastic plays today off of many S&R levels. I do like to think that someday if I can have 2-3 charts up with various S&R levels, I would do even better than I have been doing. Most of the time I am trading blind and trusting the TICK and my system.

This day has not phased me. There were NO GOOD SIGNALS telling me to be long during the MASSIVE downmove . I had starting buying before the pivot and kept adding as we went down. The pivot did not hold at all. Had I waited and taken the trades that the system gave me, I would have been more than fine and had a profitable day. I got cocky and I got schooled, end of story.

Chart of the day shows the sequence that wiped me out. As you can see the first two longs failed, while the third picked the bottom. All the shorts worked perfectly.

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