Tuesday: My 6k Mess

Base System: 20W - 7L = 27T = 74%
Sub System: 8W - 2L =10T = 80%
Summer Camp System: Winner, heat 3.5 points

Due to my goofing off yesterday and having my internet connection went out in the middle of a trade, I had to start my Ninjatrader today with a -6K loss. My trade stats are off due to that issue on todays posting. I did manage to collect 29+ points on aggressive 2-4 contract trading before 11 am. I even took some longs against the massive down move.

Overall I was happy with today's trading, I was in control and was able to keep stops larger than normal but honorable. Who knows, maybe with more time I could have recovered the full 6k in one day? The signals were very hard to read today.

Chart of the day shows a nice long out of the market open.

Monday - Trend day from Hell

Base System: 14W-6L=20T= 70%
Sub System: 6W-3L=9T= 66.6%
Summer Camp System: Winner, Heat 1.5 points

An amazing run long after the opening jitters had cleared out, was it news? The system had their worst day ever! It's about time they showed some sort of weakness.
I had my +4.25 points done early and completed them on the start of the giant run up.

Later I played around with a lot of contracts and had to start Tuesday down 6k due to an internet outage in the middle of a trade. See Tuesday post.

Chart of the day shows the signal to go long that I took some of.

Nice week! 55 Net points for the week

Base System: 18W-3L=21T= 85.7%
Sub System: 13W-4L=17T=76.4%
Summer Camp System: Winner, no heat

What a week 55.5 Net points NOT including my best day ever where I was away from the pc. See earlier weeks post.
I had a very sane relaxed trading day with a net of 22+ points. Most of my market feel was dead on and the signals were good. I took some system signals and also price action signals. I had few small runners and a few nice 2-4 contract 1 pointers. I finished up the day with a fade short of the 2:45 ridiculous run up. Quite possibly short covering from the 2:30 down move??? Probably about 12 trades max. on a total of 36 contracts for a NET gain of 22.25 points, just fantastic.

I making the most of this simulation time by trying different tactics. I am spending a lot of time now tracking the price action system. So far it looks like if automated it would post consistent weekly gains without using a traders emotion. Certainly there are times when I feel I can make better decisions than automation, but I think there is something to be said for the cut and dry automation approach.

My chart of the day shows a nice back to back setup that occurred late in the day...crystal clear "base system" signals.

I hate trend days.

Base System: 21W - 8L=29T= 72.4%
Sub System: 9W-4L=13T= 69.2%
Summer Camp System: Winner, Heat 2 points
Price Action System= Loser

I traded quickly and heavily and ended up with a nice gain of +10.25 points. I always do awful in senseless running markets like we had shortly thereafter. Absolute senseless run ups, unless this was news related? Look for a nice retrace down tomorrow.

Chart of the day shows a long I caught a bit of. The price action system has it ups and downs, but after 30-40 trades a day and fees, it's tough to stay positive. I will keep working with it.

When does +27.25 points not count?

Base System: 34W-5L= 39T= 87.1%
Sub System: 13W -5L=18T= 72.2%
Summer Camp System: Stop out 2x Reverse Even.
Price Action System: 6 points- $300-fees Net $146.40 or three points

I knew I would not have time to watch the markets today. When I saw the premarket run up (which stopped me out twice) I traded to get back even and then placed some long orders below the market. I did this knowing they had a good chance of filling where they were sitting. When I got to work they had filled and hit my profit targets and were still running 3 contracts up at 6 points. I quickly closed them out for my largest trade ever.

Later in the day I faded an emotional run up knowing there was a level that had a good chance of reversing. I hit that with 4 contracts knowing it would drop far if it dropped, but decided to take 1 point because I could not hang around to manage the trade. I was happy with the 1 point and of course it fell like 7 plus points more.

So my most amazing day without me at the pc hardly at all, go figure. That's also why today's total do not count in my book. Chart of the day shows a price action signal. The price action system is a work in progress. I am trying to filter out some trades to reduce fees and filter losers.

Tuesday: Taking candy from a baby +14 points

Base System: 25W-3L=28T = 89.2 %
Sub System: 10W - 3L - 13T = 76.9%
Summer Camp System: Stop out, reverse even.

Between the base system having a good day and my automation signals, most of my trades went my way. Some required some aggressive trading, but most went my way quickly. I was going to stop at 3 winners for the day, but I kept seeing viable trades. Today was a great day overall the only issue being leaving a LOT of profit on the table. Then again - this is a 1 point target for the most part, so be it.

Chart of day the yet again looks the same - picking the exact bottom or top!
My automation was even today, but I need to recalculate because I do think it was up about 6 points net. It is very tough finding the time to write the paintbar logic and tracking and testing the automation signals. I am very interested in it though and took quite a few and watched all of those trades today. I have to tell you its making me a better trader. I can relax and wait for a paintbar to fire off, then make a decision. The nice thing is the turn on and off, on and off and the bar is getting ready to close. It is like an alarm. Eventually I will record audio alerts that may even include an announcement of the signals probability percentage.

Monday: The Money Machine - 83.8% +9 points

Base System: 26W-5L=31T = 83.8%
Sub System: 13W - 2L = 15T = 86.8%
Summer Camp System: Winner - Heat .5 point
Price Action System: 10 net points! Trying not to get overexcited

Amazing things are happening right here and now. This base system has performed well for over 7 months and now I might be on the cusp of a semi automated trading system! What is occurring during this simulation period is just amazing.

I was able to Net 9+ points today on a mix of price action and Base System trades. My trading was about 70% and was fairly rough. I am not pleased with my overall trade performance.

Over the weekend I spent quite a bit of time backtesting and crunching numbers on the summer camp system for a friend. It is an interesting premise, but has not proven itself to me quite yet. I had about 38 days of data into my spreadsheet but want to see about 350 trading days before I make a final judgement.

The Money Machine arrived today. Obviously I am using sarcasm there, but my automation system consisting of three types of signals had a point gain of 10 points between midnight and just after the close, minus fees. An amazing first day. The stop is basic and does not trail. I will be trying to optimize the trade management as I go along. I still have one to two more automation ideas to add in, but so far I am optimistic. I backtested many signals and kept those in the 70% range and dropped those in the 50% range.

Chart of the day shows a base system trade where it yet again I picked the exact bottom. Simply amazing.

Did the grail have a signal today? See the chart.

Base System: 19W-3L=21T= 85.7%
Sub System: 6W-1L=7T= 85.7%
Summer Camp System: Winner - heat 2.75

I traded awful today, no excuses since I was able to focus without issue. I ground out a positive day but it was not pretty. I caught one of my favorite signals from the base system only to realize a few minutes later it was... THE HOLY GRAIL. Sure enough when I checked the price action it was there in perfect form. So as it turns out my favorite system signal can also be the holy grail.

So how accurate was it? See the chart, I don't think anyone could call me a sucker for trying to pick bottoms and tops with this system. Automated trading is a goal, but I am far from understanding how in the world I could code this signal into automation.

I have already figured out how to code it into a paintbar which also could possibly trigger an audio alert. Poor man's automation.

It has taken me this long to realize it's really important at what order these trades win and lose. Get three losers in a row and it becomes fairly hard to recover, especially if your time is limited. I am not discouraged though, I will keep moving forward. This week has been a real gift having discovered another system within my current system. So far the numbers are holding, but I have a LOT of backtesting to do...time to load the old data files.

Thursday: The Holy Grail found ?

Base System: 27W-6L=33T= 81.8%
Sub System: 12W-3L=15T= 80%
Summer Camp System: Winner -

Ok, some good trades today some bad and not enough time really to get profitable. No big deal, I was comfortable I could have gathered some net points if time would have allowed. Negative $35.00 and some change.

I took some time tonight (after Quotetracker crashed) to recover my charting setup and reload some older data. The price action system is valid from months ago. This is encouraging news. Imagine being able to trade with nothing but the price charts! In my case that opens up some freedom from the proprietary system I have created.

I have a talent for noticing patterns, let's just say it's in my DNA and leave it at that. So while I am opening my mind up to this new idea, I keep seeing more potential setups. So I run into one tonight that just may be the holy grail. So far I have yet to see it ever lose and as a bonus it allows the trade to go as planned with NO HEAT at all. So far the signal seems somewhat rare compared to other signals. I just have this feeling based on the way its formed that it's a real winner, possibly a 100% or 95% signal.

Stay tuned as always. This is all happening live on the blog for posterity and a chronological record of my progression.


Update 06/23/09 - This signal is reliable in the 75-85% range and does indeed lose at times. Not the holy grail, but tradeable.

Discipline Slowly Arriving +4.25 points

Base System: 31W-8L-39T= 79.4%
Sub System: 11W-4L=15T= 73.3%
Summer Camp System: Winner - heat 2.0 points

Today was a constant battle back and forth, win lose win lose. I was up 3 down 3 up 3 down 3 all day. I did however take many stops even ahead of time. I was finally in control, not moving stops and hoping the market would do what I wanted. I ended up positive and even though I took a lot of trades, that's all that matters. I actually had time to take some trades from my home pc. It was much better than connecting remotely speed wise not to mention the larger screen.

Today showed me I do have the ability to have a winning day, I just need to know when to stop and walk away. It also drove home the importance of controlled losses.

The price action system is really looking interesting and I did indeed take some of those trades today. It just so happens some of the signals also match the main systems signals. Again, I need to accumulate a LOT of signals before deciding it's holding it's averages.

Chart of the day shows a great long. I also caught a great 2 point short off of intraday resistance.

Price Action Update

It's an early total, but a start.

I am looking at 6 price action trades a total of 92 signals so far. I have some interesting results.

86.7 short - same signal as below
54.5 long - has been awful long
92.9 looks promising
88.9 looks promising
83.3 looks promising
94.1 looks promising

I still have 2-3 more patterns to add in, but this is time consuming for sure.

I will need at least 1000 signals to see if the percentages hold steady or begin to wear closer to 50/50. I will also need to look at market bias on the losing signals.

This is why I simulate and always try and backtest at least 1000 signals.

Tuesday: Beaten and Scarred

Base System: 26W - 3L=29T= 88.5%
Sub System: 10W - 4L = 14T= 71.4%
Summer Camp System: Winner .25 heat

I had a few winners in the a.m. Then I had a few losers and i was even, and then yes, I moved a stop. Not only did I move a stop - but I moved it way far away thinking "the market surely would never come down that far". You know the answer...that's exactly when they market will do that to you. So lesson learned and about 1/2 my account burned out with some really stupid trading.

I am rethinking my 2 point stop. It just may be that most of my winners do not require it and going all the way to 2 points is a mental roadblock for me. I know I need two winners for every loser. I will try and keep a tighter stop. There just is no coming back from what I did today. I get distracted since I cannot watch the screens and sometimes I feel moving a stop will help, but the truth is what it has always been. Know your risk and accept it no matter what, even walk away if need be. You will feel a whole lot better coming back to see if dropped 8 points but your stop was in place. Instead I came home to find my account blown up.

In an effort to stay positive I am going to spend some time tonight looking into my price action signals. I took 2 or 3 trades today with them and was impressed. I also discovered some small variations in them, which allows for more signals. Unlike the main system, there can be no subjectivity. Either the exact pattern is there or it is not.

I talked with a few people today about knowing when to quit. I can see now that even very talented traders can give it all back without having a stop button in place.

Monday: Shi*sville

Base System: 22W-5L=27T= 81.4%
Sub System: 12W-1L=9T= 92.3%
Summer Camp System: Winner - No heat.

Between lack of focus, bad internet connection and general distractions I really blew it today. I had trades open when my Ninjatrader opened this morning, so already my counts were off for the day. I am going to call today a $1000 loss, even though it may have been that bad because I just do not have the energy to manually total my trades. Lots of winners, lots of losers, tough day.

So on the goal end of things - 5k+700-1000=$4700 trying to get to 10k.

No charts today, although I am working on some ideas for set rules for each signal type.

I have added a signal to the Sub System that matches a signal from the Base System - I should see a few more Sub System signals now.

Preparation and Review: Remember this is a job

It's Saturday morning here. I have been lazy lately and I have not been creating my support levels for the upcoming week on my charts. I took a look at some of my levels over the last week and I see over 60 trades from these levels. To be successful at this you have to put in the preparation and review time. I think a lot of traders just shoot from the hip, which can lead to a win some lose more account total.

Obviously S&R trades are not always simple to read and they can harm your trading if you allow yourself to "assume" something is going to happen at any given level. If however you utilize them to explain why your entry signals are appearing near a level, then they can give you a positive reinforcement to enter a trade and possibly relieve some of the stress of trading.

Friday Perfection: +$135.00

Base System: 19W-5L=24T= 79.1%
Sub System: 7W-1L=8T= 87.5%
Price Action System: 5W-1L=6T= 83.3% (based from midnight to close)
Summer Camp System: Winner - Heat= 1 point
66.6% cumulative average for SCS (summer camp system)

What a great morning. In the premarket while getting ready for work, we were dropping like a rock. I resisted the temptation to get in on a countertrend signal and saw support at 933. I placed a buy order for 933 and headed to work. The moment I got to work, I noticed I had just been filled. It quickly went my way and I took my 1 point gain. It did go on much further, but so be it. I wrapped up two more trades including one using the new price action system I have created. I was 3/3 and decided to call it quits.

I got busy with work, but not before a saw a really good setup that usually goes for more than a point or so. I decided not to risk my gain and it indeed delivered big, like clockwork. I also had determined 937 as a possible resistance point and I got a sell signal and perfect trade right off that level. I considered myself "technically" up 5/5 having watched those two go as planned.

Chart of the day shows the actual trade off 933 and the predicted moves thereafter. I really exercised discipline and patience today. This is a step in the right direction and the "chip stack" in the 5k account grows slowly higher to $5700+ shooting for 10K.

My 100th blog post! Rock Em Sock Em Day +584.20

Base System: 36W-7L=43T= 83.7%
Sub System: 15W-4L=19T= 78.9%
Price Action System: 2w-0L=2t=100%
Summer Camp System: Loser-Full stop out

Well...between work and the summer camp system - I was down over 10 points quickly. I was able to claw and scratch with some not so great trading to end the day up +584.20. My accuracy was about 70%, certainly better than gambling I guess.

Today I started with a $5000 account balance and reset Ninjatrader so it works again. I feel like BracketTrader is false in its simulated fills, a bit too favorable to the trader. I want to be sure the fills are real or skewed in the markets favor. My goal is to try and trade disciplined enough to double the account as a test. Also, to see how long it takes. It may vary some due to work constraints.

Chart of the day shows a nice long.

Wednesday: Scratch It: 73.8% +$283.00

Base System: 31W-11L=42T= 73.8%
Sub System: 14W-1L-15T= 93.3%
Price Action System: 4W-1L=5T= 80%
Summer Camp System: Winner, no heat.

I am calling today a scratch due to lack of discipline. I did not have much time to watch things and I was on a horrible connection.

Chart of the day shows an example of a reversal signal that went nowhere but I hold for more than my stop knowing it is coming. Today took a little longer than I had hoped, but it is trading after all.

Tonight I begin tracking a new signal from a friend of mine. I will call this the summer camp system.

Tuesday: Pressed for Time - Net +8 Points 86.8%

Base System: 33W-5L=38T= 86.8%
Sub System: 13W-2L=15T= 86.6%

A reminder for those who are new to the blog:
The above percentages are the sum total of all signals from the system (per day) which started this blog. Sometimes I use those signals and sometimes not, it depends on how clearly they form.
My actual P&L sheets show a mix of styles and entries. I have evolved as a trader since I started this blog as far as seeing opportunities aside from the system. That is from "screen time" and is an important aspect in learning this business.
The "chart of the day" may be a trade I actually took, or just one that looked like a great signal.

A nearly perfect performance today. 8 trades and 8 winners. A few were near scratch trades where I just wanted out. Some I got back in on, others not. I have been starting the days off lately with a premarket trade while getting ready for work and find that I am much more relaxed from home. I am trying to make progress in being more disciplined in some key areas, see below.

1. Honoring stops (unless it really looks like the move is still coming)
2. Being more selective (patient) in signals.
3. Keeping the simulation as realistic as possible.

Chart of the day shows what was a really clear signal to be long right at the start of the lunchtime doldrums. Although the volatility is down from when this blog began, I see signals right through lunch all the time. It could be the system is so sensitive it picks up everything, even 1 pointers or less.
Price Action coding update: The price action setup I coded as a paintbar had 4 winners and 1 loser today. Sometimes I was in the same trade for other reasons, which was interesting. Currently I have only coded it for shorts, so I am not able to track how many longs it may have had today. I have been trying to spend less time on trading research lately. Stay tuned.

Monday: 87.8% Looking good + 20 points

Base System: 36W -5L =41T = 87.8% Sub System: 10W - 2L = 12T = 83.3%

I had a fairly disciplined day of trading. Cut losers off quick and grabbed some nice 2 pointers a few times as well. Good clear signals were out there today. The price action system has not proven itself today. I did create a paintbar to look for the setup, but the few signals that fired were not that good. I was more focused and a bit more selective. I read recently trading 10 contracts if you can reliably bank 1 point a day you can make 100k a year. That hit home with me because I think if nothing else I can say I average well above 1 point a day.

Chart of the day shows a crystal clear short. I was indeed in this short.

Late Night Revelation

For the past few weeks I have been staying away from over analyzing charts all night. It has helped to clear my mind and take a more relaxed approach to things. Tonight after reading the "By Age 23" blog, I was inspired to look at price action and how it related to my system.

So yes, here I am again. It's late and I am analyzing charts, but it may have just paid off in a big way. While I did not use his method, I quite quickly found a complicated bar sequence that had a winning edge with and without my systems support. So instead of freaking out, I walked away and watched some tv. I came back and yet again found another simpler bar sequence that really seems to have an edge where my system gives NO SIGNAL at all. This means more high % signals.

So this merits backtesting, live testing and interest for a few reasons.

1. It involves oscillations in price only and not an indicator. All indicators lag and lie.
2. It occurs over and over long and short all day (sparingly).
3. With Quotetracker, my charting platform, I could conceivably write a paintbar to alert me every time this exact sequence occurs. This would allow for less intense focus looking for the pattern manually.
4. The pattern could be expressed in such a way that it could potentially be automated.

Yes, a money machine. Actual ATM trading.

Stay tuned. If it looks promising, if I can't find it's flaws, I may temporarily suspend tracking "the system" and post results for the "ATM". It's late for me here, it's early to get overly excited, but it was worth this post for sure.

Friday: Back on the Horse +$637.80

Base System: 43W-11L=54T= 79.6% Sub System: 11W-2L=13T = 84.6%

I blew Ninjatrader up. Because of that massive loss the program stopped letting me trade. Margin call! I loaded Bracket Trader back up and paid dearly for it. I must have closed out 5 trades accidentally while trying to add a contract or move a stop!

A hard fought total on a nice day with a slightly higher number of signals than lately.
I did stretch some stops, but I also managed to kill off some losers quickly. Why is so hard to take a stop when I know the probabilities are with me?

Example: I trade the system near perfectly...
43 winners totaling 43 points (very conservative targets)
11 Losers at a full stop of 2 = 22+ add some slippage etc +4
43-26= 17 points

It is easy to armchair quarterback any system at days end, but I just cannot always take that stop when I know I need to. It's a game of patience, persistence but most importantly discipline. The hardest game on the planet that rarely gets easier no matter how long you do it. Hey, it sounds a lot like work.

Chart of the day shows a great short signal and a really awful long signal in the lunchtime zone.

Thursday: Lose your home in one day

Base System: 28W-7L=35T= 80%
Sub System: 7W-1L=8T= 80%

Annoyed with work and generally feeling crazy I was leaving trades open with 100-200 contracts. I never got back to the screens either and was stopped out at some point for a -$110,000 loss.

The system did ok as usual, but I was reckless bored and away from the screens.

No chart today.

Interesting Realization

Months ago I added an indicator that has been generating decent signals that have been included in the "base systems" numbers since then. More recently I was using another indicator (let's call it A) to confirm the base systems signals. Although I see it has been generating its own signals, I do not always take them.

Tonight I stripped my charts down to nothing but indicator A and it looks really interesting. Very few losing trades in the last few days. The really nice thing about it is the clarity in this simple setup.

I just may take a few days sometime soon and let it rip with this setup only. The base system is great, but this has a clarity all unto it's own that is worth some live testing.

Additionally, I am reading a good book called "Market Masters" by Jake Bernstein. So far it is really driving home to me the fact that the trader is what makes something work and not the system. It explains why I am having such varied results with something that seems to reliable.

He has used his background in psychology to succeed in the markets. It's a fairly old book and who knows if any of these guys ever made money in the markets, but it really making some good points.

Update: Watching the indicator Friday was good. It wins more than loses, but can give many back to back signals and some that even signal 4x but fail. This indicator will stay in place, but I am going to concentrate for now on the "ATM" method discovered June 5th. See June 5th blog.

Wednesday: 82.6% +$373.20 So So

Base System: 19W-4L=23T=82.6%
Sub System: 7W-1L=8T=87.5%

Not too much time spent today watching the markets. I was lucky enough to catch some nice moves early. I stuck myself in a losing trade because I had to be away from the screen. I let that one come back even, but it raised my average time in market quite a bit. Closed up the day with a nice long.
Chart of the day shows an early trade I was actually in. Nice signal, decent move up.

Tuesday: 90.3% +$203.00 Couda Dun Betta

Base System: 28W-3L=31T = 90.3%
Sub System: 10W-2L=12T = 83.3%

I did not have much time to watch the market today. When I did see a trade, I really tried to keep the stops tight. I was disciplined today compared to lately, which is good. The total is positive, but it took too many trades to get there.

Chart of the day shows a nice long and some bad data or charting from my package.
I hope to continue to use tighter stops ans honor the stops. I am trying to trade more "real".

Monday: 87.5% - Slop-O-Matic: +$178.60

Base System: 21W-3L=24T= 87.5%
Sub System: 9W-1L=10T= 90%

Although I had the time, I was sloppy and impatient. My attention was often taken up by other things during a trade or I missed signals due to other things going on. This positive total was a terrible result considering number of contracts traded and fees paid. Scratch day!

Chart of the day shows a really nice smooth long signal, I often get a nice signal around noon for some reason.